Consistency
February 19
Marvin
Excellent Sierra shredding currently exists with fine weather in the region. A weak wave will slide into the area late tomorrow with clouds, wind, and some light flurries (less than 2 inches at best) before excellent touring weather for the mid-week ditching of work. Sunrise and sunset snow sampling was fine during the last week.
As the wave progresses eastward, Sunday's cool NW breeze should keep snow conditions enjoyable with proper quality searching practices. Fairly low temperatures in Great Basin, so dress warm if visiting the Ruby Mountains. The image below should clearly demonstrate why the western slope of the Sierra behaves as a maritime snowpack while the eastern slope and mountains of the basin and range province behave as intermountain ranges (with the Eastern Sierra a difficult bird to categorize given the back and forth nature of maritime and intermountain weather influences).
Tuesday may see a few inches fall, but don't be too sad if it is merely a few flakes...
The passing of the wave will usher in nasty northerly winds late Tuesday into Wednesday. Watch out for windloading!!!
For Wednesday proper, conditions should improve (winds slacking and temperatures increasing with the re-establishment of the position of the evil and wicked ridge of the West.
Stellar
February 15
Sippin' 'n Dippin' 'n Decidin'
Delightful conditions in the central Sierra Nevada today with the song of the wind leading to the deep deep deep goods. More northeasterly to easterly winds tomorrow and Friday with a bit more precipitation on the menu for Saturday. Temperatures will remain chilly so snow conditions will continue to be fantastic, especially at higher elevations. It was G-L-O-R-I-O-U-S at 10k today. Wow. Excellent turns reward those who focus on the interactions of wind, terrain, and snow deposition processes. Woo hoo, a proper powder party this week!
Cold breezin' Thursday. Cold air damming in the Great Basin will help generate some frigid valley mornings in regions where the boundary layer becomes decoupled i.e., disconnected from the mean free winds. Be creative in your snow seeking ventures and watch how microfeatures and vegetation interact with winds to accumulate or disperse.
Another weak wave will bring showers and several inches of snow to the Sierra again on Saturday. A little bit of moisture, low temperatures, and the divergent curved jet exit will refresh the slopes once again and continue filling in the blanks.
Every drop in the bucket is extra insurance for fun this spring. Still on the lookout for a 6+ footer...come on Pacific!
Well Hello Inside Slider (Meteorologists talking dirty)
February 14
Marvin Gaye, Al Green, Barry White, and Teddy Pendergrass
Happy Valentines Day and welcome to the Powdiction Love Lounge. Go ahead and listen to some Teddy Pendergrass to set the mood for this special forecast.Teddy P. brings it hard in this live performance. Plus the way he sweats, I know he's fan of condensational and evaporational processes.
Mother nature is giving us a slightly belated Valentine's Day present (she's been teasing us most of the winter) with the wave coming straight over the Sierra almost north to south tonight and tomorrow. The orientation of the wave is still such (positive tilt, /) that upslope will help out the lee side slopes, and the 700mb temperatures have decreased more than the models previously showed (colder temps, more efficient more snowmaking).
Precip for the event. 0.1-1" of liquid water equivalent to fall tomorrow. Translates to 4-8" of snow. Some areas could see more with favorable upslope forcing
700mb (9-10k ft) temperature, wind, heights. Plenty cold enough for snow and upslope flow on the east side of the Sierra
All this means is that the 1-2" I forecasted yesterday is now on the low side. Think 4-8" from base to summit for the resorts. Mt. Rose will probably get the same amount of snow as the other Tahoe resorts if not a bit more with the upslope helping out.
500mb (mid-level) temperature, winds, heights. Very cold closed, low comes through tonight and tomorrow.
500mb (mid-level) vorticity (measure of instability/upward motion). The very cold air aloft helps generate more vorticity which indicates more instability and therefore more snow.
Very cold temperatures and the best temperature difference/lapse rates (induces lifting/upward motion) within dendrite formation zone (where snowflakes listen to Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get It On" and make more snowflakes) will squeeze out every bit of limited moisture this wave has and give us nice champagne powder. Additionally, the upper levels look more favorable with the slight shift in the propagation of the wave. The divergence aloft will help support upward motion started by the upslope and favorable lapse rates in the low to mid levels.
My favorite artist of all time. Most of us wouldn't be here or have kids without this man. Rumor has it he was a huge fan of convection
So pretty much the air parcels/moisture particles are pulling a Barry White and telling the lapse rates and upslope "You're My Everything". Then the upper levels are all Al Green and "...Tired of Being Alone" and bring the moisture particles and newly formed snowflakes further upward and create even more snow. Finally, after all the foreplay, it snows.
Al Green holding it down with the vest and no shirt. Not many can pull that off. His song "Take Me to the River" was actually about Atmospheric Rivers, which transport sub-tropical moisture to the Sierra resulting in Pineapple Pow
So after all the champagne, chocolate covered strawberries, and "Sexual Healing" you may or may not receive tonight, go get some fresh powder tomorrow with your significant other (think "Let's Stay Together"). Hey, it won't be an epic powder day, but it's the little things that count.
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Don't Stop Until You Get Enough
February 13
I Wanna Dance with Somebody
A lucky few got to enjoy the 6-12" this morning and I hope they were all bumping some Adele and Whitney Houston on the slopes all day. With the year we are having, ski until your legs are burning, then meditate on Rule #5 (http://www.velominati.com/the-rules/), and ski some more. Then reward yourself with a cold one and a Bill's burrito in Truckee.
Another shot of snow is coming through the area now. Laplacian of Chocolate detailed the second wave would be more of lee side snow producer which it is. Don't expect another dump, but 1-2" sounds about right for this weaker wave. The lack of an upper level jet made the snowfall totals highly variable because upslope and convection dominated the snowmaking, which is highly varying with terrain of the Sierra.
1-2", mostly on lee side. Ugh, let's just move on.
The next wave comes through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Don't expect much with this one either. Without much upper level support or moisture, expect 2-4" and the lee side should see the bulk of the snow. Good news for Mt. Rose. As of right now, no wave trains are setting up for us in the next week or so, but we will get some more snow this weekend.
So go out and enjoy the snow we have and do not be afraid to belt some Adele or Whitney on the slopes. I'm usually singing some fantastic 90's R&B (think Color Me Badd).
Precip!
February 12
Laplacian of Chocolate
Well now, a white dawn again, finally! The air is filled once more with flakes of F U N.
6-12 inches will fall by the end of the day Monday above OchoK making for much improved snow sliding conditions.
While the jet dynamics are not blowing up the dump-o-meter, the totals could be maintained by convection given the cold pool aloft.
Winds will shift to northerly into Tuesday, so those dry south faces may get a bit of bonus snow. Tuesday will likely see a few bonus inches with the upslope flow; gotta take what we can get!
General coverage is looking rather thin at present, so be wary of sneaky rocks and foliage that may be ever so slightly hidden away. Enjoy the gift of the Pacific!
Raising the roof as the first signs of a wintry wave roll into the Great Basin.
House Shoes
February Something
isentropic idealz
Supposedly people are skiing, but why pick a 2 star activity when you could, in the words of Ray Lewis, "MAXIMIZE"?
5 stars of five.ten igneous escalatin' is the name of the game this year. Get some! But do what you are most stoked to do, that is rule number 1! :)
Weak baroclinic waves will bring flurries, wind, and cool temperatures to the Sierra this weekend. Monday, however, will finally give us a real accumulation of snow. By real I mean a foot or more of snow, so that is at least somewhat exciting!
The first wave starts off looking good...
There will be some clouds and a cool breeze from the SW.
...but it poops out on us due to the high phase velocity. Damn you omega over wavenumber!
Second wave:
Does not work so well for us. Onwards in time...
And now Monday!
The jet visits us again for the first time in weeks! Posed in the prime region of juxtaposed exit regions of 2- and 4-cell momentum cores, we will reap the benefits of a thermally indirect circulation. Thank you isallobaric wind and your flowing towards the domain of maximum pressure (DeAngelo) falls. By the standards of this winter season, copious snowfall will be produced.
Speaking in terms of quasigeostrophic omegaz, the positive vorticity advection will be banging and the relatively weak cold air advection will keep the solution negative (positive if speakin to senor CHI EQUATION)
Snow levels will be no problemo. Shred conditions will be ideal throughout the early portion of next week with cool temps and light winds following the storm.
Ample moisture exists offshore and is ready for del dot q to make it happen! Thank del cross funk for spinnin records and keepin' it live and direct, if only once every few weeks. Climbing in the meantime is sweet, however!
With a chilly core of mid-upper tropospheric air in place, convective showers will linger after the fireworks to contribute a bit of bonus flakes.
Have fun!