Over time, forecast models continue to show a slower progression for this storm. The momentum slowdown appears hinged to the developing nature of the upper-level flow where the upper-level ridge building in overnight through Saturday positively amplifies across the Great Basin in conjunction with a downstream shortwave that digs back across western Texas / eastern New Mexico (see Figure 1). The net effect of this ridge-trough sequence facilitates the behavior of the upstream trough that we await for Sunday. The orientation (the positive tilt) of the latter then reveals a subtropical fetch along the central California coast Sunday into Monday (see Figure 2).
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Figure 1 illustrating the upstream ridge-trough sequence that slows the eastward progression and sets up the subtropical fetch depicted in Figure 2. |
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Figure 2 depicting the subtropical fetch (precipitable water) spreading into northern-central California. |
Because the models continue to change the progression of this event, a short update will be issued early Sunday incorporating new details. In the meantime, get out early on Saturday and enjoy bluebird conditions.
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