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Regional Radar Reflectivity from 1100 PDT |
The real action begins tomorrow around daybreak as increasing moisture and upper level support combine to produce widespread Sierra snowfall. Models have shifted the best dynamics a little farther to our south than in previous runs favoring the Mammoth Area. This means the lift over the Tahoe area will be weaker than previously anticipated. Weaker lifting reduces the amount of moisture that gets wrung out of the column. Ultimately, reducing snowfall amounts for the Tahoe Basin.
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The forecasted Jet Stream intensity and location for 800 PDT tomorrow morning. Note the left exit region of the Jet is directly over the Mammoth Area |
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24hr accumulated liquid precipitation (in inches) from tonight at 1700PDT through tomorrow at 1700PDT. |
Models are also prolonging the event with moisture drying out more slowly on Thursday.
Even with weaker dynamics in place, still think original snowfall forecast is on track with: 18-24" along the crest, 12-15" mid-mountain and 4-8" at Lake level. Upper limits are a bit optimistic but cannot rule out some pockets of heavier snow due to decent instability and the possibility for isolated snow squalls.
The next round of snow looks to impact the Tahoe Basin Saturday night with another system possible on Monday night.
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Model depicted 500 mb vorticity or spin, with maxes denoted by crosses over the Pacific at 1100PDT Wednesday. |
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