Friday, January 30, 2015

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Fingers Crossed

Lets start with good news: there is ONE model indicating a wet storm could impact the Sierra by early next weekend. The GFS brings heavy precipitation into NorCal and the northern Sierra by late Friday night (February 6th). The other THREE models that I've looked at keep the main moisture plume to the north to start the weekend.


The only reason I'm even posting a 198 hour forecast is because there has been nothing exciting for nearly a month now (over a month?)! The bad news: the figure above shows rain and snow, with nothing but rain in CA (including the Sierra). This appears to be an atmospheric river type event, with warm origins (wah wah wah, no bueno). Any liquid is good for CA, but we really need the snowpack. OK, we will just have to wait and see how this plays out next week, because the forecast will undoubtedly change.

 This weekend into next week will remain balmy and dry in the Sierra, while the northeast is under the gun again with another developing Nor'easter. This is a common pattern when a blocking ridge sets up in the west.

Oh, hey, here is where all our snow is going! Nova Scotia, awesome!

This should come as no surprise, but we could expect another mid-winter heat wave by early next week in the west...I wish I had some good news. 850 hPa represents about 5000 ft. above the surface, or around the elevation of Reno, NV.


Maybe for once things will change in our favor by next weekend, and the atmospheric river will couple with cold air from the north (doubt it)! Until then, keep working on your tan and getting in shape for summer activities.

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