Not much break before the next wave arrives tomorrow afternoon. The water vapor satellite image below shows a classic setup for a good Sierra snowfall. We have a cold upper level low currently off the coast of Oregon that will merge with a good moisture tap that can be seen off the coast of central California.
Tahoe resorts should see several feet of snow through Thursday Morning, with snow levels not being an issue with this storm. The 72 hour forecast from the GFS show impressive snowfall over much of the length of the Sierra.
However, temperatures will get warmer with this next storm (as seen in the image below), and snow will contain more water (less fluffy powder). This is actually a good thing for our snowpack, but will make for some sketchy avalanche conditions.
The ensemble shown below, consisting of about 20 different forecast runs, shows a very consistent wet pattern ahead with 10-15"+ precipitin through the next 7 days with 80-100" of snow. This at Donner Summit. If it stays cold enough, these numbers could verify, but if it warms too much snowfall will be much less.
Enjoy the snow this week and be safe out there. Avalanche danger will get progressively worse over the next several days, so use caution and have fun!
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